The impact of climate variability on flood risk
Identifieur interne : 00B014 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 00B013; suivant : 00B015The impact of climate variability on flood risk
Auteurs : Anthony S. Kiem [Australie] ; Stewart W. Franks [Australie]Source :
- IAHS-AISH publication [ 0144-7815 ] ; 2003.
Descripteurs français
- Pascal (Inist)
- Wicri :
- topic : Climat.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
Abstract
The variability of flood risk across New South Wales, Australia, is analysed with respect to the observed modulation of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts. This is achieved through the use of a simple index of regional flood risk. The results indicate that cold ENSO events (La Niña) are the dominant drivers of elevated flood risk. An analysis of multi-decadal modulation of flood risk is achieved using the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index. The analysis reveals that IPO modulation of ENSO events leads to multi-decadal epochs of elevated flood risk. However, this modulation appears to affect not only the magnitude of individual ENSO events, but also the frequency of their occurrence. This dual modulation of ENSO processes has the effect of reducing and elevating flood risk on multi-decadal timescales. These results have marked implications for achieving robust flood frequency analyses as well as providing a strong example of the role of natural climate variability.
Affiliations:
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Franks</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>School of Engineering, University of Newcastle</s1><s2>Callaghan, New South Wales 2308</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Callaghan, New South Wales 2308</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">INIST</idno><idno type="inist">03-0493441</idno><date when="2003">2003</date><idno type="stanalyst">PASCAL 03-0493441 INIST</idno><idno type="RBID">Pascal:03-0493441</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Corpus">005145</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Curation">000F81</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Checkpoint">004D73</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PascalFrancis" wicri:step="Checkpoint">004D73</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0144-7815:2003:Kiem A:the:impact:of</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">00BD58</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">00B014</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">00B014</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a">The impact of climate variability on flood risk</title><author><name sortKey="Kiem, Anthony S" sort="Kiem, Anthony S" uniqKey="Kiem A" first="Anthony S." last="Kiem">Anthony S. Kiem</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>School of Engineering, University of Newcastle</s1><s2>Callaghan, New South Wales 2308</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Callaghan, New South Wales 2308</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Franks, Stewart W" sort="Franks, Stewart W" uniqKey="Franks S" first="Stewart W." last="Franks">Stewart W. Franks</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>School of Engineering, University of Newcastle</s1><s2>Callaghan, New South Wales 2308</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Callaghan, New South Wales 2308</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j" type="main">IAHS-AISH publication</title><idno type="ISSN">0144-7815</idno><imprint><date when="2003">2003</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">IAHS-AISH publication</title><idno type="ISSN">0144-7815</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>El Nino</term><term>New South Wales</term><term>climate</term><term>floods</term><term>frequency</term><term>impacts</term><term>magnitude</term><term>oscillations</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Nouvelle Galles du Sud</term><term>Impact</term><term>Climat</term><term>Crue</term><term>El Nino</term><term>Oscillation</term><term>Fréquence</term><term>Magnitude</term><term>Variabilité climat</term><term>ENSO</term><term>IPO</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Climat</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The variability of flood risk across New South Wales, Australia, is analysed with respect to the observed modulation of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts. This is achieved through the use of a simple index of regional flood risk. The results indicate that cold ENSO events (La Niña) are the dominant drivers of elevated flood risk. An analysis of multi-decadal modulation of flood risk is achieved using the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index. The analysis reveals that IPO modulation of ENSO events leads to multi-decadal epochs of elevated flood risk. However, this modulation appears to affect not only the magnitude of individual ENSO events, but also the frequency of their occurrence. This dual modulation of ENSO processes has the effect of reducing and elevating flood risk on multi-decadal timescales. These results have marked implications for achieving robust flood frequency analyses as well as providing a strong example of the role of natural climate variability.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li></country></list><tree><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Kiem, Anthony S" sort="Kiem, Anthony S" uniqKey="Kiem A" first="Anthony S." last="Kiem">Anthony S. Kiem</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Franks, Stewart W" sort="Franks, Stewart W" uniqKey="Franks S" first="Stewart W." last="Franks">Stewart W. Franks</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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